Almost one in three public sector Finnish employees will retire in the next 10 years, analysis by Finnish public sector pension provider Keva has found.

The research suggests that the rate of retirement will continue at a “rapid pace” over the next few years. However, the provider’s retirement forecast showed that within the public sector, there are large differences in retirement.

For instance, 28 per cent of employees within wellbeing services are predicted to retire over the next 10 years, compared to 30 per cent of municipal sector workers.

The forecast highlighted a trend in the age distribution of state and church employees, where the focus is notably on older age groups. Approximately 33 per cent of state employees and 43 per cent of church personnel are set to retire between 2025 and 2034.

In addition to this, the analysis found that of the current approximately 240,000 insured persons in the wellbeing services counties, approximately 50,000 persons are expected to retire on an old-age pension within the next 10 years, and an additional 20,000 persons will retire on a disability pension.

The data also underscores the variation in retirement rates in health and social services due to factors such as age and disability risks.

In particular, the forecast showed practical nurses, whose disability risk is higher than average, are set to see a third of their workforce retire, with 15,600 expected departures over the next decade.

In contrast, fewer nurses (under 12,000) and social work instructors (4,300) are expected to retire within the same timeframe.

The analysis revealed that the 10-year retirement estimate for institutional caretakers (hospital and institutional assistants) was as high as 43 per cent (about 4,000 people), and their retirement rates are also increased by the relatively high risk of disability.

Nearly a quarter (1,800) of social workers and public health nurses (1,300) will retire during the next 10 years, while 17 per cent of specialists and 18 per cent of firefighters will do the same.

The number of retirements on an old-age pension between 2025 and 2034 is highest in the occupational groups of home care workers, mental health nurses, secretaries, institutional caretakers, equipment maintenance workers and assistant kitchen workers.

Keva found that the relative risks of disability retirement are strongest among mental health nurses, work and craft instructors, personal assistants, home care workers and social workers.

However, the occupational groups with the lowest retirement rates are doctors, rescuers, ambulance paramedics, midwives and psychologists.

The analysis also found that in the municipal sector, one in four will retire from education and early childhood education and care.

Out of the approximately 333,000 employees in the municipal sector, 76,000 people will retire on an old-age pension and 23,000 people will retire on a disability pension within the next 10 years.

Meanwhile, approximately 9,600 teachers in the lower grades of comprehensive school and upper secondary school, 5,000 early childhood education teachers, 4,200 class teachers and 2,200 special education teachers will retire between 2025 and 2034.

Additionally, around 8,600 childminders and 4,800 school assistants will retire in the same period.

Keva said that the figure in the early childhood education sector has increased by the slightly higher risk of disability pensions than others in the education sector.

However, the forecast highlighted that retirement is strongest in the construction and transport sector, family day care providers and cleaners, almost half of whom will retire within 10 years.

More than 45 per cent of farm relief workers and librarians will also retire during this time, while firefighters, veterinarians and youth work instructors have the lowest predicted retirement.

The projection also found that of the current 102,000 central government employees, approximately 28,000 will retire on an old-age pension and approximately 5,400 on a disability pension between 2025 and 2034.

It suggested that the central government personnel are older compared to the wellbeing services counties and the municipal sector and the gender distribution is more even. The occupational structure is more strongly focused on expert professions.

The occupational groups of the defence forces, the border guard and the police have provisions that deviate from the general old-age pension age.

Meanwhile, younger university employees are insured in TyEL (statutory pension insurance for employees) institutions, which is reflected in the forecast as a relatively high estimate of those retiring.

Keva also found that the number of retirements in the next 10 years will be the strongest among teachers, secretaries, directors and senior civil servants in state aid schools.

Excluding the previous mentioned occupational groups of lower retirement ages, the lowest number of people retiring in relative terms are, for example, communications officers, nurses, attorneys-at-law and specialists in administration and business development.

Among church staff, the rate of retirement is the highest in the public sector, as of the 13,600 insured persons in the church sector, approximately 4,600 employees will retire on an old-age pension and 1,200 on a disability pension during the next decade.

In the public sector, the age structure of church employees is focused on the oldest age groups.

Of the largest professional groups in the church, priests, deacons and deaconesses, and children's club instructors, an average of about 40 per cent will retire in the next 10 years, while the number of property maintenance employees and secretaries to retire in the next 10 years is over 50 per cent.

Commenting on the forecast, Keva statistical analysist, Petra Sohlman, said: "In the largest occupational groups, which have also seen a shortage of labour in recent years, the rate of retirement is now rapid.

“At the same time, the higher-than-average risk of disability also poses a challenge for certain occupational groups, such as practical nurses and institutional caregivers.

“That is why it is important to pay attention to how work ability can be supported in many different ways.

“And we should not forget the means that can also make it possible to work in retirement, which has been relatively popular, especially in social welfare and health care teams in recent years.”

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