Return expectations for Danish pension customers for the first half of 2026 remain largely unchanged, based on the Danish Council for Return Expectations’ latest update.

The council’s return expectations are used to calculate pension projections and return expectations for Danish customers and provide forecasts on returns, risk and inflation.

For the first half of 2026, the council has made “limited changes” compared to its last update for the second half of 2025, with small adjustments across most asset classes

Meanwhile, expected returns for the next 10 years continue to show largely unchanged bond and equity returns.

However, private equity is predicted to edge higher than previously predicted, while return expectations for high-yield bonds have fallen slightly.

Looking over the longer term, return expectations remain unchanged since the council’s previous update a year ago. These projections cover the period beyond the first 10 years and are updated only once a year.

Council for Return Expectations chairman professor, Jesper Rangvid, CBS, said this latest update comes on the back of a 2025 characterised by “major global events and measures with both economic and geopolitical implications”.

“Despite this, it appears that the financial markets have maintained balance, with equity markets in particular rising significantly following the turbulence in spring. However, uncertainty remains high, especially in the short term.

“There is still no clarity on the effects of the new tariff regime, and we are dealing here with something that, in a modern context, is untested. Judging from market developments since the spring, however, there does not appear to be anything that would justify significant changes in return expectations, either in the short or long term,” he stated.

Regarding inflation, the council found that expectations remain unchanged compared to the previous update. Expected inflation remains at 1.8 per cent for the first five years and 1.7 per cent for years 6–10.

In the long term (year 11 and beyond), the inflation expectation is maintained at 2 per cent.

The council’s estimate of inflation expectations reflects a consensus view of price developments over the next 10 years. It draws on the most recent forecasts published by the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Finance, the Economic Council, and the National Bank, along with projections from major Danish financial institutions.

In addition, the expected horizon return (a so-called buy-and-hold return) for Danish bonds with a three-year duration amount to 2.03 per cent, a slight decrease from 2.19 per cent at the previous publication.

The horizon return is calculated shortly before the return expectations are published, based on current market data.

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