The French pension system deficit, including basic and supplementary schemes, was estimated to be €5.1bn, or 0.2 per cent of GDP, in 2025, according to the Pensions Advisory Council (COR).

The COR’s annual report 2026 presented an updated overview of the current situation and future outlook of the French pension system.

It stated that, in the baseline scenario based on unchanged regulations and accounting framework, the pension system would continue to have financing needs through to 2070.

The deficit was projected to reach €6.8bn, or 0.2 per cent of GDP, by 2030, before rising to 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2045 and settling at 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2070.

This deterioration would occur despite pension expenditure as a percentage of GDP remaining broadly stable until 2045.

In 2025, pension expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 14.1 per cent, with this rising slightly to 14.2 per cent in 2045 before increasing to 15.3 per cent by 2070.

Meanwhile, the system’s resources would decline from 13.9 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 12.9 per cent in 2070.

The COR noted that ongoing geopolitical turmoil and the suspension on the 2023 pension reform, which costs €1.8bn annually until 2032, would offset any positive effects from new demographic assumptions regarding net migration and gains in life expectancy.

“From 2045 onwards, however, the ratio of pension expenditure to GDP would increase at a faster pace than in the previous report,” the report stated.

“This trend would be primarily due to the downward revision of the fertility assumption (1.45 children per woman, compared to 1.8 previously), which would impact the size of the working-age population and, consequently, the level of GDP.

“However, caution is advised in analysing these long-term projections, as changes in birth rates beyond age 20 remain, by their very nature, difficult to predict reliably.

“The upward revision of expenditures would also stem from the new assumptions for increasing the value of the Agirc-Arrco pension point, conventionally defined by the social partners managing the scheme from 2038 onwards, which are more favourable for insured individuals than last year's assumptions.”

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