The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) has warned that market risks remain a key concern for the occupational pensions sector amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Its 2026 October Risk Dashboard for Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORP) noted that the complex geopolitical environment continued to be the primary source of macroeconomic risks.

This was impacting the outlook for global economic growth, fuelling inflation, and putting pressure on sovereign debt sustainability.

In the financial markets, EIOPA highlighted that sovereign and corporate bond spreads had widened by the end of September, placing greater focus on debt financing costs and private equity quality.

Furthermore, market and asset return risks remained elevated, with notable increases in bond market volatility.

“Persistently high valuations leave markets vulnerable to the risk of a broader market correction and a repricing of risk premia amid renewed geopolitical tensions,” the authority added.

There was also a worsening outlook for digitalisation and cyber risks, with supervisors warning of heightened risks for IORPs amid growing cyber threats associated with frontier AI models and the potential use of cyberattacks in international conflicts.

“Despite the challenging environment, Europe’s IORP sector remains resilient, supported by the strengthening of the financial position for defined benefit schemes in Q2 2026, resulting in a lower level of reserve and funding risks,” EIOPA said.

This IORP Risk Dashboard is based on quarterly Q2 2026 and annual 2025 regulatory reporting collected from 625 IORPs, complemented with market data with a cut-off date of end-September 2026.

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