Citizens of the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) will go to the polls on 9 June to elect their new EU representatives across the continent.
Germany is no exception. The continent’s largest economy by GDP has 96 seats within the European Parliament, has carried the euro as its currency since January 1999, and was a member of the Schengen area four years before that. Its GDP is also, according to the European Union, over a quarter of that of the entire bloc.
Politically, there is some turmoil here. Olaf Scholz replaced Angela Merkel as Chancellor in 2021, and the Osnabrück-born former lawyer has since done much to advance the stereotype that Germans are methodical, if not particularly efficient. The country was in recession in 2023, a state that looks likely to have continued into the beginning of this year.
Says the European Commission: “Following a recession in 2023, economic activity in Germany is expected to stagnate in 2024. Domestic demand is set to pick up slowly in 2024 and 2025, as real wage growth resumes. However, investment is projected to remain well below pre-pandemic levels, constrained by continued high financing costs.”
That is not good. And neither is Germany’s ageing population.
As the OECD wrote four years ago: “In Germany, low fertility and increasing life expectancy have resulted in a rapidly ageing population. Currently, the median age of the German population is 46 years, which is almost four years higher than the median age of the population of the neighbouring country of France, and makes Germany one of the oldest countries worldwide. Moreover, the median age in Germany is expected to rise from 45.7 years in 2020 to 49.2 years by 2045. Thus, while Germany is already a rather old country, its population is ageing at a fast pace.”
And this ageing population will eventually strain the pensions market.
As I wrote in April: “[More] than a third of the federal budget was earmarked for the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, which administers the German state pension. The total allotted amount was confirmed by the Bundestag to be €176.8bn. Of that figure, roughly 72 per cent (€126.87bn) is further earmarked for pension insurance and basic security for the elderly, along with those unable to work. The pension insurance allotment stands at €117.24bn, up from €111.87bn in 2023.”
So where do the different political parties stand on this?
The first point to make is that there are many political parties in Germany, but the main ones are the SPD (the party of Olaf Scholz), the CDU, the CSU, the Greens, the FDP, and (unfortunately) the AfD.
Their stances are:
SPD: The party says that it is the one group to whom you can rely on for your pension. Instead of the cuts favoured by the CDU, it says that forty-five years of working should be enough to qualify for a full pension and rejects outright the idea of a pension age of 70. Interestingly, it also says that it is going to strengthen ‘collective bargaining’ with a new law, a move that it thinks will lead to better pensions.
CDU: There is nothing specifically addressing pensions on the CDU’s website. However, in September last year, the CDU said that it was looking at an ‘active pension’ system, saying that it was a ‘feasible proposal’ and not just a suggestion. The ‘active pension’, essentially, is a transition from working to claiming full retirement and will involve making working at retirement age free of tax up to an amount of €2,000 a month.
CSU: The Bavaria-focused party talks about ‘good security in old age and thorough support in the event of illness or unemployment’ on its website but gives no other great detail. However, it did send out a press release in March that said the most-recent pension reforms did not bring relief, but only additional burdens for all. It added: “There is no answer to demographic change. The pension reform of the traffic light is neither sustainable nor future-proof. The idea of a fair distribution of the burden between pensioners and the working population is completely abandoned. This is the opposite of intergenerational justice.”
The Greens: A more left-wing party, the Green Party say on its website: “Anyone who has worked for a large part of their lives, raised children or cared for other people must receive a pension that is above the basic income. We want to better protect women in particular from poverty in old age.”
The FDP: There is a lot on the pension landscape on the FDP’s website. Amongst its suggestions are entering partial capital coverage of the statutory pension insurance that will be managed by an independent public body with global investments. It says that it also wants to reactivate the catch-up factor in pension calculation in good time before the pension adjustments from 2022. It also aims to bring forward the full deduction of pension contributions.
The Afd: It is important to note that the AfD is a far-right party and attempts to be the acceptable face of fascism. Numerous of its contingent have far-reaching links to the Far Right, and the journalism group Correctiv discovered earlier this year that Afd members had held a conference near Berlin that talked about mass repatriation of non-Germans to north Africa. It is not nice, and it does not deserve the oxygen of publicity, but it is unfortunately becoming a strengthening force in German politics.
Its website makes its position clear on retirement – it is everything to do with immigration. Says the Afd: “Our country is facing major social challenges. Stabilising social systems requires special efforts in the face of a shrinking and ageing population. Our limited resources are therefore not available for an irresponsible immigration policy that no other European country expects of itself. Our welfare state can only be preserved if the required financial solidarity is provided within a clearly defined and limited community.”
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