French Prime Minister, François Bayrou, survived another vote of no confidence in parliament yesterday (1 July), as the country's long-running pension dispute continues to escalate.

The Socialist party previously tabled a no-confidence motion against Bayrou, labelling comments that he would not allow parliament to debate changes to the retirement age, specifically a return to the retirement age of 62, as a "betrayal".

However, the measure garnered 189 votes, falling short of the 289-vote threshold needed to oust the government.

As reported by Reuters, this was largely thanks to far-right National Rally representatives opting not to back the motion, having previously said that they would prefer to refrain until later in the year, when even more complex talks over passing the 2026 budget could once again threaten France's government.

Whilst Bayrou has survived the vote, this is just the latest development in the country's long-running pension dispute, which recently escalated further after negotiations between trade unions and employers collapsed, prompting Bayrou to call an emergency meeting last week (24 June).

The talks, described by the government as a “last chance” to build consensus, sought to address criticism of the 2023 pension reform, which raised the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64.

That law, pushed through by President Emmanuel Macron’s administration without a parliamentary vote, triggered mass protests and widespread public discontent.

Medef president Patrick Martin, recently suggested that there could be scope for agreements in future, arguing that "I think we are not far from an agreement".

However, he argued that "at some point, [it is necessary] to set aside a certain number of points of friction or opposition", emphasising the need not to lose sight of the economic and employment objectives of this reform.

"Our country needs to work more, and our country is in serious financial difficulty," he stated. "At the rate things are going, we will soon be unable to pay pensions."

The developments come amid troubling projections for the pension system’s long-term solvency.

According to forecasts by France’s independent Pensions Advisory Council (COR), the system is expected to run a deficit of 0.2 per cent of GDP by 2030, growing to 1.4 per cent by 2070 if no action is taken.

While the 2023 reform aimed to address this imbalance, unions and many public sector workers argue it disproportionately affects those with physically demanding or lower-paid jobs.

And union leaders have remained firmly against the plans, with a joint statement from the French Confederation of Management – General Confederation of Executives (CFE-CGC), the French Democratic Confederation of Labour (CFDT) and the French Confederation of Christian Workers (CFTC) placing the blame with employers.

"The employers' intransigence and their inability to seek a compromise brought the pension talks to a close on June 23," the union stated.

Whilst the union's acknowledged that real progress has been made following the four months of discussions, it argued that the two sticking points that prompted the collapse of the talks, issues around hardship and women's pensions, are not minor.

In particular, trade unions had demanded expanded early retirement options for workers in physically strenuous jobs and improved pension credit for maternity leave.

However, employer groups, led by the Medef federation, refused to accept changes they viewed as fiscally irresponsible.

The union's statement revealed that, during the last negotiation session, the leader of the Permanent Joint Delegation, Jean-Jacques Marette, proposed a "balanced text".

However, the union's statement said that this was rejected out of hand by employers, without discussion, suggesting that employers therefore "bear heavy
responsibility for the failure of the negotiations".

"For the CFDT, the CFTC, and the CFE-CGC, there is only one way forward: that of social justice and shared financial burdens," it stated.

This was also emphasised by CFTC vice president, Pascale Coton, who argued that "unfortunately, negotiating takes two. We did the job. The employers didn't".

Public opinion also remains firmly opposed to increasing the retirement age. According to recent polls cited by Reuters, more than 60 per cent of French citizens continue to disapprove of the reform, which they see as both unfair and unnecessary.

However, changes in attitudes are emerging, as recent research from Odoxa on behalf of MIF found that the acceptability of the shift in the legal retirement age has gained ground.

According to the survey, 45 per cent of future retirees today said they feel able to continue working full-time after age 62, compared to only 30 per cent who shared this opinion in 2023.

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