The Finnish Centre for Pensions (ETK) has estimated that the earnings-related pension index will rise by 2.6 per cent in 2027.

It also forecast the wage coefficient to increase by 3.5 per cent next year.

ETK said it expected the index increases in 2027 to be larger than the previous two years, with the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport to determine the earnings-related pension indices for next year at the end of October.

Earnings-related pensions in Finland are affected by two indices: the earnings-related pension index, which increases current pensions, and the wage coefficient, which affects the size of new pensions.

ETK estimated that the earnings-related pension index will increase by less then the wage coefficient in January 2027.

This would result in someone retiring in 2027 receiving a slightly larger index increase than someone retiring in 2026, with a similar effect expected for partial old-age pensions.

“Inflation began to increase after February, when the Iran war hit the world oil and gas market, but so far the increase in inflation has been moderate,” explained ETK economist, Timopekka Hakola.

“Nominal wages have increased by an estimated 3.5 per cent this year, meaning that real incomes are increasing despite price increases.

“The earnings-related pension index is expected to increase by 2.6 per cent, and the wage coefficient by 3.5 per cent. The index increases will be larger than in 2025 and 2026.

“The change in the wage coefficient exceeds the average increase during this decade, while the size of the change in the earnings-related pension index is in line with the average during the 2020s.”

This decade so far, the earnings-related pension index has increased by an average of 2.67 per cent a year and the wage coefficient has risen by an average of 2.74 per cent a year.

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