Finnish earnings-related pension provider Veritas suffered a -0.2 per cent return on investments in the first quarter of 2025, as it said the threat of trade war is “casting its shadow over Finland”.

Veritas CEO, Carl Haglund, said that although there were “positive signs in the Finnish economy… the unpredictable policies of the United States may hold back economic growth”.

However, according to Haglund, the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump has caused Europe to close ranks.

"Europe has now realised that we have to take our destiny into our own hands. Europe needs to strengthen its defence and invest in infrastructure. No one else will do it for us. The EU's goal to reduce regulation is also very welcome,” he said.

Regarding asset class performance, fixed income investments returned -0.3 (1.8) per cent, equity investments -0.6 (6.4) per cent, real estate 0.8 (0.6) per cent and other investments 0.5 (2.4) per cent.

Veritas CIO, Laura Wickström, said: "After three years of negative results, the year started strongly on the Helsinki Stock Exchange and economic growth was finally expected to pick up and improve slightly compared to last year.”

According to Wickström, at the beginning of the year, the market viewed Trump's talk of tariffs as a negotiating tactic rather than as a real threat to economic growth. However, this was not the case.

"The US has been considered a safe harbour for investors, but at the moment, uncertainty is the only certainty. The sharp fluctuations in the fixed income market and the weakening dollar also reflect this new development."

She said that in a favourable scenario, the situation calms down and tariff agreements will be reached in the coming days or weeks. In a negative scenario, the trade war becomes protracted and leads to a deep recession.

"Inflation fears are already being realised, as tariffs could drive inflation. The big question is whether the tariffs will push the US into a recession or whether this can still be avoided."

In more positive news for Veritas, the company continued to attract new savers, with almost 1,200 TyEL and YEL customers transferring from other pension companies to Veritas in the first quarter.

Indeed, the TyEL payroll of companies insured by Veritas grew by 12.6 per cent in January-March compared to the previous year. Premiums written are expected to grow by well over 10 per cent this year.

"We have invested in good customer service. I believe that our service model is the most important factor behind our good growth figures," Haglund said.

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