Norway’s pension costs are set to rise sharply over the next decade, driven by an ageing population, despite reforms aimed at slowing the increase.

New projections from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (Nav) and the Norwegian Directorate of Health showed total annual spending on the National Insurance Scheme will rise by NOK 95bn to NOK 831bn by 2035, outpacing economic growth.

In 2025, expenditure on the National Insurance Scheme amounted to NOK 736bn, an increase of NOK 113bn from 2015.

State pensions are the main driver, with old-age pension expenditure projected to rise by 16 per cent, equivalent to NOK 56bn, over the period as the share of people aged over 67 continues to grow.

However, Nav said the 2024 pension reform is expected to “curb this growth”.

Measures including a closer link between retirement age and life expectancy are estimated to reduce pension spending growth by NOK 47bn by 2035.

“Without the pension reform, the growth in pension expenditure would have been almost twice as high over the next decade and difficult to finance,” Nav deputy director, Ole Christian Lien, said.

The projections on spending also reflect structural changes to survivor benefits following the 2024 reform.

Survivor pensions, previously payable until retirement age, are being phased out and replaced by time-limited transitional support, typically capped at three years, as policymakers seek to balance income protection with incentives to return to work.

Despite the reforms, pension spending will still take up a larger share of the economy.

Overall, national insurance expenditure is projected to rise from 16 per cent to 17.3 per cent of mainland GDP by 2035, meaning a growing share of public finances will be absorbed by age-related costs.

“Going forward, a larger share of value creation will need to be used for the National Insurance Scheme because the proportion of people over 67 is increasing, while population growth among those of working age is expected to be weak,” Lien said.

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